Studied the Monte Carlo effect

Numbers and technology have always fascinated Ida Herabakka. This summer in Norway, she submitted her master's thesis on estimation and Monte Carlo as an integrated part of Omega 365.

Read the full master thesis here

“This is a statistical method that is used in estimating project costs to capture unforeseen factors. Monte Carlo is used to find out how likely it is to have different economic outcomes, and to find out where the risks lie,” says Herabakka enthusiastically.

In recent years, she has combined her studies in information science and software development in Bergen with a 20 percent position as a system developer. Recently, she submitted her master's thesis in program development on using Monte Carlo as an estimation module and integrating it into the Omega 365 system. Jarle Gjerde, department manager in Bergen, is pleased that she has accepted a permanent job. Gjerde has also been an external advisor for her thesis.

“This is a great opportunity to make Omega 365 visible in academic environments. It is important that we support students like Ida with what they need. Many people at Omega 365 have provided advice for the master's thesis and have worked closely with Ida since she started a year and a half ago. That's the Omega family in a nutshell,” he says.

Estimating costs

The Monte Carlo system itself is basically a set of algorithms that use random samples to solve problems. The name derives from the well-known Monte Carlo casino in Monaco, where chance and coincidence rule the games. It sounds like Herabakka finds the same excitement in system development as many others do in the casino hall.

“It's quite exciting to see what happens when you run a Monte Carlo simulation on projects. As a basis, it is important to make a project estimate, where you must also take into account the worst and best possible outcomes for cost items. In addition to running the simulation on the estimate, you can also review the risks that are already known in the project,” says Herabakka.

The 23-year-old from Suldal does not shy away from a challenge, and there has been little doubt about her career direction. Her father had to share the magazine Teknisk Ukeblad with her, as she developed an interest in technology at an early age. She never considered studying anything other than science and technology.

“It was probably in high school that my interest really came to the fore, then I got the chance to choose technological subjects. Even though science can be demanding, it was right for me to continue there,” she says.

Combining studies and work

At work, she prefers to develop and dig into system challenges, preferably at a high pace where “the pot is boiling a little”, as she says herself. She was tipped about Omega 365 and the job opportunities there from a student friend who knew about the company. It turned out to be a good match.

“I really like it here, it was also very nice to be able to combine my master's studies and thesis with the job,” says Herabakka.

The Monte Carlo system calculates the probability of a project based on a given number of value points that the user can fill in. First, the problem is defined, a large number of random tests are carried out, and then the median of the results from these tests is calculated. In her master's thesis, Herabakka wanted to find out if the estimation model can affect project quality, if the user-friendliness is good, and if the project estimate becomes more accurate when using the simulator.

“I was able to test the system on a number of colleagues at Omega to evaluate its user-friendliness. In addition, I used research literature in combination with the evaluation of the implementation to find answers to the other issues.”

“Among other things, we see that many variants of the Monte Carlo model can be challenging to use since they take into account all possible issues. Hopefully, the integration in Omega 365 will be easier to use as a project management tool, as it will be more customized.”

Provides better control

She points out that project quality is strengthened if the system is integrated with the functionalities that the customer needs, and unnecessary information is left out.

“The more control you have over what data you get into the project, and what you need, the better the estimation result you get,” she says.

Jarle Gjerde is also impressed by the thesis and believes it, along with other student assignments, is important for creating change and progress in the company.

“This is a big task, and here we have used Omega 365 and linked methods and values to Omega's cases. It is important for us to showcase ourselves as the knowledge company we are, at the same time as Herabakka’s findings can be implemented and further developed, so that everyday work becomes even better. If we want to improve, we must work together,” he believes.

Sporty environment at work

Herabakka has had the opportunity to try out several different roles at Omega 365. Most recently, she came from the support department, where she worked with customer support in Pims' document control module. Previously, she worked on automating and simplifying reporting in Subsea. This reporting uses vessels to track how much crew, fuel, tools, and other resources are on board at any given time.

“We were five developers who helped find a solution for this in Omega 365 systems where reporting was done digitally and simplified the process. Then I also got to test what it's like to work in a team and use methods that we had learned during our studies.”

“It's very nice, and not least social since it's a young group here at the Bergen office. We play padel every week, run the Bergen City Marathon and go on mountain hikes. I think we can say that we are a fit bunch,” she says and laughs.

She herself has bought an apartment at the foot of Løvstakken and rents it out to friends. In the city surrounded by mountains, she has found her place and now she is looking forward to strolling to work in the morning.

“It will be very exciting to start this fall.”